Sausage Grinder | |
Pyrah's Primary Predictions
9:26 AM, 23-Jun-2008
.. 2 comments
.. Link
That headline uses what we in the business call "alliteration." We think we're being clever, but really, any 6-year-old can do it. No, seriously, my daughter pulled off "Don't drop the dress, Dad!" without even trying this weekend.So in the spirit of using my long-nurtured political expertise to predict something I'm sure my 6-year-old could also do, here's my take on Tuesday's results: Chaffetz vs. Cannon – U.S. House District 3 The higher the turnout, the better the chances for Cannon. The general population may be grumbling a bit, but not enough to oust a Republican incumbent. In the event of a 30 percent turnout (considered high, God Bless America) it will probably be 53-47 Cannon. Maybe 55-45 if Cannon has a good day. Low turnout is Chaffetz's best bet. The people who like Chaffetz REALLY like him. But he hasn't raised much money in the grand scheme of things no matter what KSL says. Let me give you an anecdote, another tool journalists use when they think they're being clever: My neighbor is a solid Republican. He's been a delegate at the county convention and has strong political views. But when I was talking to him the other day, he continued to pronounce Chaffetz (Chay-fits) like Cha-vez. When you can't get your base to even pronounce your name correctly, maybe you haven't reached as many people as you should have. So I'm thinking if the turnout is 20 percent or lower he's in the ballgame. If he wins, it'll be a nail biter. Richard Ellis vs. Mark Walker – State Treasurer In the interest of resources, we staked out the District 3 race. That's too bad because the Ellis/Walker shenanigans have proved to be more fun than, well, the 3rd District race. The Trib's Cathy McKitrick has done a bang-up job of following the story that Walker secretly offered Ellis a job with a massive pay raise – which is illegal. Funny thing is that Walker – a legislator – has the backing of some pretty powerful people, including John Valentine, Mark Shurtleff and others. I'm thinking Ellis takes it in a squeaker. –––––––––––––––––––––––– My prediction record isn't perfect, but I did quiet well here so who knows? Leave a Comment { Last Page } { Page 11 of 67 } { Next Page } |
About Me My Profile Archives Friends My Photo Album LinksCategoriesRecent EntriesMoving!Don't mind me. A little Northern Exposure Reducing your Miley footprint Where in the world is Broadweave? Friends |